European Energy Crisis Deepens as Dutch Gas Futures Spike and ECB Delays Rate Cuts Indefinitely

Europe is facing its most serious energy security crisis since the 2022 Russian gas shock. In some ways, it is even more severe. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced LNG supplies from Qatar and the Gulf. Europe relies on these supplies to refill gas storage during summer.

Dutch TTF gas futures have nearly doubled to over 60 euros per megawatt hour. This surge is increasing economic pressure. The European Central Bank has d

Europe’s vulnerability was already well documented. The continent entered the 2025–2026 winter with low gas storage levels. This followed the Russia-Ukraine energy crisis.

A harsh winter further reduced reserves more than expected. By the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, storage was about 30 percent. This is historically low for the spring refill period.

The closure of the Hormuz corridor struck at exactly the wrong moment. QatarEnergy, one of Europe’s most important LNG suppliers, declared force majeure on all exports when the strait’s closure stranded its tanker fleet. Iranian strikes on the Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar in mid-March caused a reported 17 percent reduction in LNG production capacity that is expected to require years to fully repair. European gas spot prices in Asia subsequently surged by more than 140 percent.

The ECB has suspended its interest rate cuts indefinitely. This is tightening conditions in an already slowing economy.

Mortgage costs remain high. Business investment is also slowing. Consumer confidence across the eurozone has fallen.

Manufacturers in Germany, France, and the Netherlands have added energy surcharges of up to 30 percent. This is reducing their global competitiveness.

France and the UK’s joint conference initiative announced Monday to organize a multilateral navigation mission for the Strait of Hormuz, once the fighting stops, is an attempt to project diplomatic leadership and signal to energy markets that Europe is pursuing a structured pathway out of the crisis. But analysts note that the conference cannot by itself reopen a strait that is physically controlled by a combination of Iranian mines, IRGC patrol boats, and now a US naval blockade.